Economic analysts have predicted that Nigeria’s economic growth will remain steady throughout 2025, citing factors such as a more stable exchange rate and a decrease in inflation.
At the 2025 Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) Economic Review and Outlook Conference, Taiwo Oyedele, Chairman of the Presidential Committee on Fiscal Policy and Tax Reform, shared his optimism about the country’s economic outlook. He noted that the pressure on the exchange rate has significantly eased, particularly due to the country’s growing local refining capacity and a reduction in unverified consumption-driven inflation. He also pointed out that an expected influx of foreign exchange into the national treasury could further stabilize the economy.
“Once the economy stabilizes beyond foreign portfolio investments, we will start to attract more foreign direct investment (FDI), which is a stronger indicator of economic confidence as it signals long-term commitment,” Oyedele said.
Oyedele also emphasized the importance of rebasing the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), regardless of whether the informal or “black” economy is included. This rebasing will enhance Nigeria’s ability to measure its tax-to-GDP ratio more accurately and offer a clearer picture of its per capita income and economic classification.
“Including a revised Consumer Price Index (CPI) basket will provide more reliable insights into the nation’s economic direction,” he added.
The committee, according to Oyedele, is actively engaging with key stakeholders and hopes to see the tax reform bill passed by the end of the first quarter of 2025.
Gabriel Idahosa, President of LCCI, further discussed the expected impact of the tax reforms, which aim to streamline tax administration, widen the tax base, and promote fairness. The reforms, if passed, are expected to boost non-oil revenue by 25% by 2026 and increase income tax revenue by N500 billion annually. This would raise the country’s tax-to-GDP ratio to 11% by 2025, enhancing fiscal stability and reducing reliance on debt financing.
“Once the rebasing is complete, the government must stay committed to executing its economic reforms to achieve the desired outcomes,” Idahosa urged. He also cautioned against assuming that lower inflation figures resulting from the rebasing would justify more borrowing or complacency from the fiscal authorities.
Biodun Adedipe, founder of B.Adedipe Associates Limited (BAA Consult), who presented on “Nigeria 2025: Path to Economic Rebound and Recovery,” forecast that the impact of reforms will begin to show in early 2025, leading to faster growth and a potential reduction in inflation. He attributed this to the Central Bank of Nigeria’s tightening measures, expected tax reforms, and improvements in supply-side constraints.
In line with this, Segun Kadir-Ajayi, Director General of the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN), highlighted that the future of the manufacturing sector depends on the success of ongoing reforms, including the implementation of the tax overhaul and investment in critical infrastructure and technology. He called on the federal government to resolve banking challenges that hinder economic progress and expedite reforms to ensure that Nigerians benefit from the anticipated economic improvements.
