The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has forecasted that Nigeria’s economy will grow by 3.2% in 2025 but will experience a slight dip, slowing to 3.0% in 2026.
These projections are part of the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook Update, titled “Global Growth: Divergent and Uncertain.” The report highlights an improvement in Nigeria’s growth trajectory, rising from 2.9% in 2023 and 3.1% in 2024.
Across Sub-Saharan Africa, economic growth is expected to maintain momentum, with a forecasted increase to 4.2% for both 2025 and 2026, up from 3.6% in 2023 and 3.8% in 2024.
Global Trends and Implications
On the global stage, the IMF projects economic growth to reach 3.3% in both 2025 and 2026, falling short of the historical average of 3.7% recorded between 2000 and 2019. The report also anticipates a decline in global headline inflation, predicting a reduction to 4.2% in 2025 and further down to 3.5% in 2026. Advanced economies are expected to achieve inflation targets sooner than emerging markets and developing countries.
“The 2025 outlook remains largely unchanged from the October 2024 report, with upward revisions for the United States offsetting downward adjustments in other major economies,” the IMF stated.
Divergent Risks and Policy Challenges
The report emphasized that medium-term risks remain skewed toward the downside, while short-term risks are more varied. Stronger-than-expected growth in the United States could support global growth in the near term, while other nations face downside risks linked to policy uncertainty.
“Disruptions caused by policy measures to manage inflation could hinder efforts to ease monetary policies, with potential consequences for fiscal sustainability and financial stability,” the IMF warned.
To address these challenges, the IMF recommended a balanced approach to policy, focusing on controlling inflation without stifling economic activity. It also stressed the importance of rebuilding economic buffers, implementing structural reforms, and strengthening international cooperation to boost long-term growth.
Steady Progress Amid Uncertainties
Despite varying levels of resilience across countries, the global economy is holding steady, the IMF noted. As Nigeria’s economy navigates these global dynamics, the projections for 2025 and 2026 underline the importance of sound economic policies and structural reforms to sustain growth and weather external shocks.
