The Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) has forecasted that the Nigerian economy will grow at a rate of 3.5% in 2024, supported by ongoing reforms and expected improvements in key sectors such as agriculture, construction, trade, and manufacturing. These sectors are expected to contribute to reducing the nation’s unemployment and poverty rates.
NESG shared this outlook at a hybrid event in Lagos, which was attended by prominent economic stakeholders, including Dr. Olayemi Cardoso, Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), and other key figures such as Dr. Christian Ebeke from the IMF and Dr. Alex Sienaert from the World Bank.
Dr. Cardoso, who delivered the keynote address, expressed optimism about Nigeria’s economic trajectory, stressing that while the reforms underway are challenging, they are designed to sustainably address the nation’s economic issues. He reaffirmed that the country is witnessing positive changes as a result of these efforts.
While NESG remains optimistic about Nigeria’s economic prospects for 2024, it acknowledged that various internal and external factors will influence the country’s performance. Global developments, such as fluctuations in the global crude oil market, international trade trends, and the ongoing geopolitical conflicts, will all play significant roles in shaping the economic outlook.
NESG anticipates crude oil prices will average $90 per barrel in 2024, significantly higher than the $77.96 per barrel set in Nigeria’s 2024 budget. This forecast is based on the expectation that geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, will disrupt global oil supply, keeping prices elevated. This scenario, NESG suggests, could create surplus demand for Nigerian crude, further supporting higher oil prices.
In addition, the reduction in crude oil theft has led to increased production, which is projected to reach 1.75 million barrels per day in 2024, up from 1.3 million barrels per day in 2023. This rise in oil production is expected to boost government revenue, improve fiscal performance, and potentially increase capital expenditure allocations in the 2024 budget.
Inflation is projected to moderate, with NESG forecasting an average rate of 21.5% in 2024, compared to 24.5% in 2023. This slowdown in inflation is attributed to lower deficit monetization and relative stability in exchange rates.
The NESG also highlighted that the improved fiscal environment, along with political stability and stronger returns on investments, will likely attract foreign capital inflows. The nation is expected to maintain a trade surplus, accumulate more foreign reserves, and ease exchange rate pressures throughout the year.
However, food inflation is expected to remain a significant challenge, driven by factors such as high credit costs, insecurity, and internal displacement, which continue to put pressure on food prices.
