Nigeria has regained its position as the leading destination for oil upstream investments in Africa, surpassing Angola despite the latter’s continued focus on deepwater projects.
According to data from Wood Mackenzie, Nigeria led the continent in upstream capital expenditure (capex) for 2024, driven by a series of offshore developments and sustained investment in deepwater assets.
The country reclaimed the top spot by leveraging major oil projects, including Azule Energy’s Agogo-Ndungu development and TotalEnergies’ ongoing infill operations in Blocks 32 and 17.
Special Adviser on Energy to President Bola Tinubu, Olu Verheijen, attributed Nigeria’s success to the implementation of key presidential directives and fiscal incentives introduced throughout the year.
“These measures are reshaping Nigeria’s energy sector and setting the stage for greater investment in the years ahead, reaffirming our position as a major player in Africa’s oil industry,” Verheijen stated via social media platform X (formerly Twitter).
Major Oil Projects Driving Growth
Wood Mackenzie identified several key projects fueling Nigeria’s resurgence in the upstream sector. Among them is the Iseni project, with an estimated investment of $122 million and reserves of 84 million barrels of oil equivalent (mmboe).
Additionally, the Ubeta project, which involves a capex of $566 million and reserves of 182 mmboe, is expected to boost Nigeria’s production capacity significantly.
One of the country’s most significant investments, the Bonga North Tranche 1 project, will see $4.6 billion injected to tap into 350 mmboe of reserves. Another major development, the HI (OML 144) fixed platform by Energes, is expected to attract $2.6 billion for 327 mmboe, though a final investment decision (FID) is yet to be confirmed.
Competition with Angola and Regional Trends
Despite Nigeria’s impressive performance, Angola remains a formidable competitor, with companies like TotalEnergies and ExxonMobil maintaining a strong presence in offshore projects such as Block 31 and Block 20/11. The Kaminho I field, a key focus of Angola’s drilling campaigns, continues to attract investment despite challenges in some of its marginal fields.
“The rivalry between Nigeria and Angola remains fierce, but Nigeria’s ability to secure fresh investments in deepwater fields has given it the edge,” said an analyst from Wood Mackenzie.
Beyond Nigeria and Angola, countries like Ghana, Senegal, and Côte d’Ivoire have seen a steady rise in upstream activity, though not at Nigeria’s scale. However, political factors, such as Ghana’s presidential elections, have slowed industry progress in some areas.
Angola’s OPEC Exit and Investment Adjustments
Nigeria’s resurgence comes in the wake of Angola’s decision to exit OPEC in early 2024, a move aimed at easing production constraints and unlocking new opportunities in mature offshore fields. The Angolan government has since introduced revised policies to attract investments and optimize hydrocarbon recovery from existing oil fields.
New Developments Across Africa
Other African nations are also making notable strides in the energy sector. Niger’s emergence as an oil exporter, facilitated by the Niger-Benin pipeline, faced setbacks due to border disputes and security threats but resumed operations after successful negotiations.
The launch of the African Energy Bank in mid-2024 has been hailed as a transformative step for the continent, offering financing options for oil, gas, and renewable energy projects.
In South Africa, the government recently consolidated key energy agencies into the South African National Petroleum Company (SANPC) and passed new legislation that expands state involvement in upstream operations.
Meanwhile, political changes in countries like Mozambique, Senegal, and Namibia have sparked discussions on regulatory reforms that could impact energy investments in the coming years.
