Nigeria’s crude oil export surged significantly in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2023, reaching a value of N10.31 trillion, marking a substantial 20.8% increase compared to the previous quarter. This growth highlights the continued dominance of crude oil in Nigeria’s export profile, accounting for a major 81% of the nation’s total exports during this period.
The latest foreign trade data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shows that crude oil exports have rebounded, with a notable rise from N8.53 trillion in Q3 2023. This increase follows a period of decline in Nigeria’s oil production due to several challenges, including pipeline vandalism, oil theft, and underinvestment in the oil sector.
In stark contrast, the previous year’s export figures for Q4 2022 were significantly lower, at N4.91 trillion, which underscores the remarkable growth of 109.9% between Q2 and Q3 2023. This sharp rise in crude oil exports comes as Nigeria’s crude oil production is on an upward trajectory, moving from just 900,000 barrels per day in Q3 2022 to a notable 1.42 million barrels per day in January 2024, a key milestone in the country’s recovery efforts.
Despite a decade-long decline in oil output, attributed to disruptions in the Niger Delta and declining investments, Nigeria has seen significant improvements in both the security of oil infrastructure and in the number of operational oil rigs. These efforts have contributed to a rise in production capacity, and there are expectations that by February 2024, Nigeria will have met or exceeded its 1.5 million barrels per day target set by OPEC for Q3 2023.
Performance of Oil Exports and Other Products in Q4 2023
The fourth-quarter report indicates that Nigeria’s overall export performance was robust, with petroleum products making up the lion’s share. Crude oil accounted for N10,310.70 billion, representing 81.2% of total exports. Following crude oil, natural gas exports stood at N1,015.84 billion (8%), while urea exports totaled N251.90 billion (2%).
Alongside crude oil, Nigeria also saw a 13.6% growth in exports of other oil products, totaling N1.29 trillion in Q4 2023, a strong year-over-year increase of nearly 80% from the same quarter in 2022. These exports, however, paled in comparison to the significant contribution of crude oil to total export values.
The country’s performance in the solid minerals sector, however, remained relatively modest. Solid minerals exports amounted to N58.92 billion, though this was a 6.4% increase from the previous quarter, and a substantial 72.7% increase from Q4 2022.
Export Destinations and Trade Breakdown
In terms of trade partners, the top five export destinations in Q4 2023 included the Netherlands (15.1% of total exports), India (8.7%), and Spain (8.1%). Other major destinations included Canada and France, with export volumes to these countries collectively accounting for 45.3% of Nigeria’s total exports for the quarter.
Overall, Nigeria’s total trade during Q4 2023 was valued at N26.8 trillion, with exports amounting to N12.69 trillion and imports reaching N14.11 trillion. This represents a notable 22.7% increase in exports compared to Q3 2023, and a striking 99.6% year-on-year increase when compared to Q4 2022.
Annual Trade Performance
Looking at the full year, Nigeria’s total trade in 2023 reached N71.88 trillion. Exports accounted for N35.96 trillion, while imports were slightly lower at N35.92 trillion, showing a marginal trade surplus of N0.04 trillion. This impressive performance reflects a rebound in Nigeria’s export sector, largely driven by oil, and indicates a positive shift in the nation’s economic recovery.
This growth in oil exports is a crucial step for Nigeria, as the government seeks to address the challenges of crude oil theft, pipeline sabotage, and underinvestment that have plagued the oil sector in recent years. With steady growth in oil production and increased efforts to secure infrastructure, Nigeria is on a path to revitalizing its oil sector and improving its foreign trade balance.
