As Donald Trump prepares to return to the White House, his administration is reportedly working on nearly 100 executive orders set to take effect from Monday. These policies are expected to introduce sweeping changes, with a strong focus on protectionist trade measures.
Trump, who has vowed to take swift action “on day one,” has made it clear that his administration will prioritize American interests by imposing steep tariffs on imports. He has proposed a 10% tariff on all foreign goods entering the U.S., with even harsher levies of up to 60% on imports from certain countries, particularly China. Trump’s objective is to address trade imbalances and secure more favorable agreements with key partners, including China, Canada, and Mexico. “We’re going to make trade fair,” he stated during his campaign, even hinting at tariffs as high as 100% if necessary.
Global Trade Implications
Trump’s aggressive stance on trade is expected to send ripples across the global economy. Increased tariffs and trade disputes could escalate tensions with major trading partners such as China, the European Union, and neighboring countries like Canada and Mexico.
The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) reported that global trade grew by 3.4% in 2024 after a slow 0.9% increase the previous year. However, the outlook for 2025 remains uncertain, with experts warning that escalating trade conflicts and protectionist policies could disrupt supply chains and hinder economic growth.
“Trade relations between China, the U.S., and the EU have become increasingly strained,” UNCTAD cautioned, suggesting that retaliatory measures could create an unpredictable environment for businesses and investors alike. Trump’s proposed tariffs, particularly in strategic sectors like energy and defense, may further reshape international trade dynamics and supply chain strategies.
Despite these concerns, Trump’s incoming trade adviser, Peter Navarro, argues that the tariffs will revitalize U.S. industries. “Trump’s trade policies aim to rebuild American manufacturing and bring jobs back home,” he stated. However, analysts believe the broader consequences could result in higher costs for global exporters and increased volatility in trade markets.
Potential Impact on Nigeria
For Nigeria, the implications of Trump’s trade policies are multifaceted, presenting both challenges and potential opportunities. The U.S. remains a crucial trade partner for Nigeria, which was the second-largest destination for American exports in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2022, with bilateral trade valued at $3.4 billion. However, Nigeria’s trade surplus could shrink if U.S. tariffs make Nigerian exports, especially petroleum products, less competitive in the American market.
Furthermore, Trump’s push for domestic manufacturing and cleaner industrial standards could place additional pressure on Nigeria’s oil and agricultural sectors. Stricter compliance requirements could raise operational costs and reduce market access for Nigerian exporters.
Additionally, the potential strengthening of the U.S. dollar amid global uncertainties could pose further challenges for Nigeria. With most international transactions conducted in dollars, fluctuations in exchange rates could significantly impact the country’s trade balance and import costs.
However, trade experts suggest that Nigeria could turn these challenges into opportunities by diversifying its export destinations. As countries impacted by U.S. tariffs, such as Mexico, seek new markets, Nigeria could strengthen its trade relationships with Europe and Asia. Leveraging initiatives like the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) could help reduce reliance on the U.S. and open up new avenues for economic growth.
Lower global demand for freight services might also reduce shipping costs, offering some relief to Nigerian importers. Yet, local businesses may need to adapt by expanding their product offerings and exploring emerging markets to remain competitive in an evolving global trade environment.
